![\"Comparison](\"/article-assets/come-diminuire-imprevisti/come-diminuire-imprevisti-imprevedibile-vs-imprevisto.jpg\")
Are unforeseen events really inevitable?
\nAnd why do some people seem to have them all the time, while others manage to work with more continuity and control?
\nUnforeseen events are, unfortunately, part of everyday life. A day can start with a precise schedule and, a few hours later, be completely swallowed up by urgent matters, problems and unplanned activities.
\nWhen unforeseen events are no longer occasional episodes but become a constant presence, you run the risk of spending your days chasing whatever happens, with less and less chance to devote time to important activities.
\nTo reduce unforeseen events, you first need to understand what lies behind what we call an unforeseen event and which situations can be prevented.
\nAs in Monopoly, when you draw a \"Chance\" card and the outcome can be positive or negative (for example, going back to Go or receiving money from a distant uncle), in real life unforeseen events can also have different meanings.
\nIn everyday language, however, the term is generally used with a negative connotation. When the event is positive, in fact, you need to say so. Saying \"something unexpected came up\" normally means that something undesirable happened.
\nSo is an unforeseen event a problem that can be solved?
\nThe common answer might be: no! Unforeseen events just happen.
\nIn reality, unforeseen events don't just happen. What happens is the unforeseeable, while the unforeseen is something different.
\nAll human beings have unforeseen events, but not all in the same number.
\nA truly unforeseeable event, on the other hand, is relatively rare: it mostly concerns natural events that could not be predicted and that, fortunately, don't happen every day.
\nIf the number of truly unforeseeable events is the same for everyone, the number of unforeseen events is not: it depends on how situations are managed and on what is considered an unforeseen event.
\nThere are, therefore, actions that allow you to have fewer unforeseen events.
\nUnforeseen events are currently on the rise (for most people, the real surprise is actually having no surprises at all), but they are also partly solvable and, above all, they differ from one person to another.
\nEven an apparently random event can be seen in a different way. For example, if a car's tires get a puncture after 60,000 kilometers or after 15,000, is it really the same thing?
\nTo answer this question and, in general, to solve a problem, you first need to understand it in depth: analyzing its meaning and how it differs from similar concepts it tends to be confused with helps you categorize it and point more clearly toward its solution. So you need to start from the definition of the term unforeseen.
\nEtymologically, the Italian word for \"unforeseen,\" imprevisto, comes from the Latin verb praevidere, formed from prae, \"before, ahead,\" and videre, \"to see\"; the English \"unforeseen\" is built the same way, from \"fore\" and \"see.\" It therefore indicates something that was not seen beforehand.
\nThe unforeseen, however, is often confused with the unforeseeable, that is, something that cannot be predicted.
\nThere is a big difference between what was not seen and what could not be seen.
\nThis confusion gives rise to the idea that unforeseen events are simply an inevitable part of existence, against which nothing can be done and which must therefore be accepted as a normal consequence of chance.
\nThe unforeseen thus ends up turning into a problem that seemingly has no solution.
\nThis overlap of meanings also leads to a passive attitude: unforeseen events happen, and all you can do is put up with them and live with them (often while complaining).
\nA customer may call after 9 p.m. saying it's an emergency, when in reality it isn't. A team member may arrive late. A washing machine may break down. These are all unforeseen events, but not necessarily events that could not have been seen beforehand.
\nAn unforeseen event is something that interrupts an activity, complicates it or creates extra work, breaking your plans.
\nAn unforeseen event, then, has an effect on the way time and activities had been planned: it can interrupt what you are doing, shift your attention or add an unplanned activity.
\nIt usually takes the form of a distraction or an interruption. In most cases, in fact, an unforeseen event distracts from or interrupts an activity: a person who is late is an interruption; a washing machine that breaks down is an interruption; the phone ringing while you're doing a task is a distraction.
\nThis distinction is important because it allows you to categorize unforeseen events and understand where they come from.
\nIt is useful, in fact, to ask what generates unforeseen events. The answer can be summarized in the following 3 categories:
\nNatural events are a category you can, in many cases, do little or nothing about. Objects and people, on the other hand, are the generators of unforeseen events you can act on most to reduce their frequency.
\nSo unforeseen events, in the form of distractions and interruptions caused by objects and people, break plans, create fragmented time you lose control of, and add activities that increase the things to do in everyday life, with a frequency that turns them into something normal and accepted.
\nIt's worth asking whether the perception that daily life has become fuller of unexpected events and stressful situations is a fact that can be considered a real current trend.
\nHave unforeseen events increased or decreased compared with thirty years ago?
\nAnd how much do they affect the possibility of having time and attention for what you are doing?
\nThe available research makes it possible to compare these aspects over time and shows some significant changes.
\nThe OECD (2021) [1], analyzing the data available for ten countries, found that time poverty has increased over the past few decades, that is, the condition of those who devote less than 60% of the median time to rest and recovery activities: the share of \"time-poor\" workers rose from an average of 1.4% in the 2000s to 1.8% in the following decade among men, and from 1.3% to 1.8% among women. The same report notes that in 2015, 43% of workers in OECD countries said they were dissatisfied with the time devoted to work, with excessive hours as the main cause.
\nThe number of unforeseen events and stressful situations also seems to have changed over time.
\nAlmeida and colleagues (2020) [2] compared data collected in the 1990s with data from the 2010s and found that in 2010 people experienced, on average, more stressful events than in the past. Depending on the group analyzed, this increase corresponds to 7-64 more days per year with at least one stressful event.
\nIn particular, stressful events occurred on a larger percentage of days and were perceived as more severe.
\nSpecifically on the work front, the observational study by Mark, Gonzalez and Harris (2005) [3], which followed 24 knowledge workers throughout the entire day, measures how much unforeseen events fragment time: 57.1% of the activities in progress were interrupted before being completed and, when interrupted work was resumed on the same day, it was picked up again after an average of 25 minutes and 26 seconds, with an average of 2.26 other activities carried out in the meantime.
\nThe result therefore suggests that the feeling of having little time doesn't depend only on the number of hours available, but also on how often daily life is interrupted by unforeseen events and situations that demand attention.
\nResearch thus shows that some of the stressful events that characterize daily life have increased compared with the past. This contributes to describing a context in which people more frequently experience situations that demand attention and interrupt the continuity of daily life.
\nUnforeseen events have increased compared with the past and have an impact on available time, making it worse because of interruptions and distractions that lower its quality, bringing a greater sense of stress and of getting nothing done.
\nBy now it is clear that the presence of unforeseen events in your systems is a problem to be solved.
\nWhen analyzing a problem, the investigation must first concern what signals and evidence show that the problem exists, where it shows up and whom it affects: a single person, the team members or the entire organization.
\nYou also need to ask whether it is a chronic problem, that is, a situation that repeats cyclically, or an isolated case.
\nIn general, the effect of an unforeseen event is underestimated. Ten minutes of delay, for example, can be considered simply \"just ten minutes.\" The point, however, is not the event itself, but what happens every time you get distracted or interrupted.
\nSo people rarely realize that behind an unforeseen event there is actually a chronic problem whose effects, in the long run, have serious consequences for the whole system.
\nTo better understand the problem of unforeseen events, it helps to identify the effects it brings.
\nWhat happens every time the problem shows up?
\nWhen interruptions and distractions are the order of the day, when unforeseen events keep happening, you run into the following negative consequences:
\nThese are just some of the possible effects, but the effects of unforeseen events are many and, in general, very significant.
\nIn fact, since they are often small things that are underestimated and therefore left unresolved, they add up and end up creating a tangle that is harder and harder to manage: the main effect of unforeseen events is precisely that they generate bigger problems in the long run.
\nThis worsening, very often unnoticed, considerably complicates the problem-solving process, resulting in an increasingly significant systemic problem.
\nIt therefore becomes necessary to do everything possible to solve the problem and act to reduce unforeseen events.
\nThe first step in solving a problem is defining the ideal situation, that is, the one you would have without the problem.
\nIdentifying the ideal condition is essential, and it is also a very delicate step: if you define the result you want to achieve wrongly, you risk heading in the wrong direction and not solving the problem at its root.
\nAnd that is exactly what happens when, to solve a problem, you work on the effects and not on the causes.
\nThe ideal condition is often defined wrongly; in this case the incorrect one is: having no unforeseen events.
\nHaving no unforeseen events, however, would be a huge loss for your own development. It would be like saying you no longer have any problems. Unforeseen events and problems, instead, bring gaps to light, and working on those gaps produces improvement. So wanting to avoid them means missing the chance to evolve.
\nThe correct ideal condition is therefore: eliminate every unforeseen event.
\nThe goal is to make sure that a given unforeseen event happens only once and doesn't keep repeating. If you don't make mistakes, you're not learning anything new. In the same way, if you have no unforeseen events, you are keeping your life standing still: under control, but stuck.
\nUnforeseen events must therefore happen, but on a different scale of development. They must happen, and they must be managed so that they don't come back the same as before.
\nThe point is: don't eliminate the possibility that something new will emerge, but eliminate the repetition of the same unforeseen event.
\nThis means using unforeseen events to grow, using them to fill a gap or a shortcoming.
\nTo identify the solution that acts on the problem and solves it at its root, you need to understand what mechanism generated it.
\nFirst of all, underlying a problem there is the belief it rests on: an idea about it, on the basis of which it is defined.
\nDepending on what you believe, the problem is identified and traced back to the cause that generates it. It is often difficult to bring lasting solutions because you act on the basis of wrong beliefs.
\nThe wrong idea, in the case of the problem discussed here, is: an unforeseen event can't be predicted.
\nUnderlying this idea is the confusion between unforeseen and unforeseeable.
\nBetween what could not be seen and what was not seen there is, as we have seen, an essential distinction. If the unforeseen is considered unforeseeable, it is also considered inevitable: you don't ask yourself what generated it and, as a result, you don't act on the cause that could prevent it from happening again.
\nIf, instead, the unforeseen event is considered something that was not seen, it becomes possible to ask what was not observed and what gap prevented you from foreseeing it. Identifying that gap allows you to intervene and make sure the same unforeseen event doesn't come back.
\nThe right idea, then, is: a good share of unforeseen events can be predicted and prevented.
\nUnforeseen events can therefore be, at least in part, preventable and predictable.
\n
So, to reduce unforeseen events in your system and solve the problem, you first need to understand that unforeseen events are something that was not seen but that can be predicted and prevented by acting on the shortcoming that generated them, on their cause.
\nThe real causes are the reasons why the problem exists and keeps going.
\nIn the specific case of unforeseen events, two elements of today's context that contribute to their increase must be taken into account.
\nOn the one hand, you need to consider how objects are designed: they can be designed to break more easily (creating interruptions and extra work, such as repairs) or to be more distracting.
\nOn the other, you need to consider people's behavioral trends, as people increasingly bring unforeseen events with them: statistically, reliability is declining. This helps produce a greater number of unforeseen events.
\nUnforeseen events, therefore, continue to increase.
\nWithin this broader context, however, it is possible to identify causes you can act on.
\nThe real causes of the emergence and frequency of unforeseen events in your systems are:
\nIdentifying the real causes of a problem already points you toward the corrective action that solves it in a stable and lasting way.
\nThe solution to a problem is nothing other than the implementation action that fixes the shortcoming that generated it.
\nThe solutions to the causes identified consist, first of all, in making unforeseen events observable and usable to identify what is missing.
\nSo, to reduce unforeseen events and, above all, to make them useful elements for your own development, you need to:
\nThe unforeseen event, then, allows you to see a gap. Filling gaps means continuing to evolve and grow. You should always focus on your own gaps before those of others, even when you are on the receiving end of the unforeseen event because it is created by someone else's behavior: looking for your own responsibility in the matter will bring to light a shortcoming you can work on to improve yourself and your system.
\n![\"The](\"/article-assets/come-diminuire-imprevisti/come-diminuire-imprevisti-ciclo-evoluzione-lacuna.jpg\")
Two practical examples to visualize how these two solutions are applied:
\nIn conclusion, reducing unforeseen events doesn't mean resigning yourself to the fact that they are part of life or work. It means working so that what is an unforeseen event today doesn't become one again tomorrow.
\nAn unforeseen event can, in fact, point to a gap in the way you work, organize activities or manage relationships. Writing it down and identifying what is missing allows you to act on the cause and make sure the same event doesn't happen again.
\nThe goal, then, is to eliminate unforeseen events, not simply to avoid them or learn to live with them. Every unforeseen event can become an opportunity to identify a gap, fill it and make the system more stable and reliable.
\nReducing unforeseen events is only the first result. The most important value is what you build through this process: a way of working that keeps evolving precisely thanks to what, initially, had interrupted the plan.
\n[1] OECD. (2021). OECD Employment Outlook 2021: Navigating the COVID-19 Crisis and Recovery, chapter \"Working time and its regulation in OECD countries: How much do we work and how?\". OECD Publishing, Paris — https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2021/07/oecd-employment-outlook-2021_e81ed73a/full-report/working-time-and-its-regulation-in-oecd-countries-how-much-do-we-work-and-how_bfff25bb.html
\n[2] Almeida, D. M., Charles, S. T., Mogle, J., Drewelies, J., Aldwin, C. M., Spiro, A. III, & Gerstorf, D. (2020). Charting Adult Development Through (Historically Changing) Daily Stress Processes. American Psychologist, 75(4), 511–524.
\n[3] Mark, G., Gonzalez, V. M., & Harris, J. (2005). No Task Left Behind? Examining the Nature of Fragmented Work. Proceedings of the SIGCHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems (CHI '05), 321–330 — https://doi.org/10.1145/1054972.1055017
","headings":[{"level":2,"text":"The problem: dealing with unforeseen events","id":"the-problem-dealing-with-unforeseen-events"},{"level":3,"text":"What an unforeseen event is and what it gets confused with","id":"what-an-unforeseen-event-is-and-what-it-gets-confused-with"},{"level":3,"text":"What science says about the presence of unforeseen events in today's society","id":"what-science-says-about-the-presence-of-unforeseen-events-in-todays-society"},{"level":2,"text":"Observing the effects of unforeseen events to detect the problem","id":"observing-the-effects-of-unforeseen-events-to-detect-the-problem"},{"level":3,"text":"The effects of unforeseen events in the short and long term","id":"the-effects-of-unforeseen-events-in-the-short-and-long-term"},{"level":2,"text":"The role of unforeseen events in a system that evolves","id":"the-role-of-unforeseen-events-in-a-system-that-evolves"},{"level":2,"text":"The mechanism that causes unforeseen events to arise","id":"the-mechanism-that-causes-unforeseen-events-to-arise"},{"level":3,"text":"The real causes of frequent unforeseen events in your systems","id":"the-real-causes-of-frequent-unforeseen-events-in-your-systems"},{"level":2,"text":"Practical tips for reducing unforeseen events","id":"practical-tips-for-reducing-unforeseen-events"},{"level":2,"text":"Sources and references","id":"sources-and-references"}],"tldr":"","tldrItems":null}